Texas school enrollment decline pressures districts statewide

Even as Texas continues to post some of the nation’s fastest overall population growth numbers, public school enrollment is moving in the opposite direction, forcing districts to rethink spending on facilities, staffing, maintenance and academic programming as student demographics shift downward. 

The decline marks a significant reversal for a state where enrollment historically climbed by 1% to 3% annually from the late 1980s through the early 2000s. After a COVID-related dip and brief rebound, Texas public schools posted a 1.4% enrollment decline for the 2025-26 school year. It is the sharpest non-pandemic drop in four decades. 

The decrease amounts to roughly 76,000 fewer public school students statewide, according to data presented to the Texas House Public Education Committee on May 11. Public policy group Texas 2036 projects the state could lose another 100,000 students by 2030, raising concerns about long-term funding pressures for districts already facing budget deficits. 

Texas 2036 reported that 81% of this year’s enrollment losses came from Hispanic students, with significant declines also seen among English learners and low-income students. Geographically, the steepest drops were reported in the Panhandle, West Texas, the Texas-Mexico border region and major urban areas. 

The trend carries major financial implications because Texas school funding is tied largely to average daily attendance (ADA), along with the state’s $6,215 basic allotment and local property tax revenue. 

As ADA declines, so does district revenue, creating another challenge for districts already managing rising costs for staffing, maintenance and daily operations. 

That pressure is already translating into campus closures across the state. Austin ISD is closing 10 campuses this fall after reporting enrollment losses of about 3,000 students and a growing budget deficit. Other districts, including Fort Worth, Leander, Judson and Houston, have also approved closures, while San Antonio ISD has projected additional campus consolidations. 

District leaders say the causes vary by region. 

In Austin, officials have pointed to rising housing costs, changing migration patterns and growing competition from charter schools, private schools and homeschooling options. The state’s newly expanded school choice program could further affect future enrollment, though current decline figures do not yet reflect those shifts. 

While Austin ISD and other districts have seen some families transfer to private schools or homeschooling, the recent acceptance of 96,000 students into the Texas Education Freedom Accounts program for the upcoming school year could add further enrollment pressure. Families have until July 15 to confirm enrollment in a qualifying nonpublic education program. Because some accepted students may already be enrolled outside traditional public schools, the program’s full effect on public school enrollment remains unclear. 

Although school choice could influence future enrollment totals, education analysts say it is only one piece of a broader demographic shift already reshaping Texas public schools. 

Texas birth rates have declined slightly faster than the national average. Advocacy groups say the decline reflects rising childcare, housing and family-related costs. In the past, lower birth rates were offset by growing domestic and international migration, particularly among Hispanic families, but with Texas 2036 reporting that 81% of this year’s enrollment losses came from Hispanic students, that demographic cushion appears to be weakening. 

For education leaders, the immediate challenge is balancing shrinking enrollment with fixed operational costs. Longer term, the data is prompting broader questions about how Texas districts will adjust facilities planning, staffing models and academic offerings if enrollment declines persist. 

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