Record rainfall in early July has filled up both Lake Travis and Lake Buchanan, drastically altering lake level projections while taking into account each lake’s conditions and storage capacity. While full lakes are good for the region, local homes and businesses may have to deal with the fallout of excess water in the reservoirs.
The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) – the organization overseeing regional lake management and monitoring – has contingencies in place to direct and store excess water should they overflow. Currently, Lake Buchanan’s overflow is passed downstream to Lake Travis, which still has limited additional storage.
Notably, Lake Travis has a flood pool designed to collect any additional runoff should the Lake fill to capacity. This flood pool exists to protect downstream communities, preventing additional flooding from the lake rushing down the Colorado River where it would severely impact homes and businesses and pose a significant risk of property damage and public safety. The current projections for both lake levels indicate that homes and businesses are not in any additional danger from lake-related flooding.
Both lakes are the primary water supply reservoirs for Central Texas, providing the majority of usable water for the region. While both lakes were designed to fluctuate with the seasons, the recent downpour has nearly reached the peak of conservation storage. Projections are based off of how four rainfall scenarios will affect future levels:
- “Wet conditions” in the 25th percentile, where 25% of past years were wetter.
- “Median conditions” in the 50th percentile, where 50% of past years were wetter.
- “Dry conditions” in the 90th percentile, where 90% of past years were wetter.
- “Extreme dry conditions” in the 99th percentile, where 99% of past years were wetter.
Projections for Lake Travis estimate that lake levels will only lower under dry and extreme dry conditions. At its current rate, the lake will likely reach the top of conservation storage by November. By comparison, Lake Buchanan is expected to retain its current level under wet and median conditions for the foreseeable future. The combined projections for both lakes project are promising, estimating that even the driest scenarios will keep Central Texas above Stage 1 drought contingency plans, according to LCRA officials.
Photo by Trac Vu from Pexels
